Naukovi Novyny, Vol 2, Issue 3, March 26, 2020
Act now to contain the coronavirus infection
Act now to contain the coronavirus infection
N. Filenko (editor)
N. Filenko (editor)
Wuhan, the city in Hubei Province of China, emerged in January 2020 as the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, afterwards the infection spread to other Asian countries, Europe with Ukraine not being exception and the American continent. It might be very hard for politicians and business leaders to make a decision of what to do, if to impose quarantine or not. In his article Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now, Tomas Pueyo addresses politicians, community leaders and business leaders as they have the power and the responsibility to prevent the spread of infection by imposing the social distancing [1].
Wuhan, the city in Hubei Province of China, emerged in January 2020 as the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, afterwards the infection spread to other Asian countries, Europe with Ukraine not being exception and the American continent. It might be very hard for politicians and business leaders to make a decision of what to do, if to impose quarantine or not. In his article Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now, Tomas Pueyo addresses politicians, community leaders and business leaders as they have the power and the responsibility to prevent the spread of infection by imposing the social distancing [1].
By comparing daily official numbers of coronavirus infection cases in the Hubei province with true daily coronavirus cases (found by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention through asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started), the author shows that true numbers are much higher than official ones (chart 7). He proposes one of the ways to calculate the actual cases. If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. If as an example one person died today of coronavirus, it means that this person was most probably infected 17.3 days ago, as on average it takes 17.3 days from catching the virus to dying. Further, assuming mortality rate for virus being 1%, we can calculate that 17.3 days ago there were 100 cases in the area (of which only one ended up in today’s death). We can also use the average time of 6.2 days, time it takes to double coronavirus cases, meaning that in the 17 days it took this person to die, the initial cases had to be multiplied by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). That means that, if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today corresponds to 800 (100*8) true cases today.
By comparing daily official numbers of coronavirus infection cases in the Hubei province with true daily coronavirus cases (found by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention through asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started), the author shows that true numbers are much higher than official ones (chart 7). He proposes one of the ways to calculate the actual cases. If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. If as an example one person died today of coronavirus, it means that this person was most probably infected 17.3 days ago, as on average it takes 17.3 days from catching the virus to dying. Further, assuming mortality rate for virus being 1%, we can calculate that 17.3 days ago there were 100 cases in the area (of which only one ended up in today’s death). We can also use the average time of 6.2 days, time it takes to double coronavirus cases, meaning that in the 17 days it took this person to die, the initial cases had to be multiplied by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). That means that, if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today corresponds to 800 (100*8) true cases today.
What will happen when these coronavirus cases materialize? There will be pressure on the health care system as around 20% of cases require hospitalization, 5% of cases require the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and around 2.5% require very intensive help, with items such as ventilators or ECMO (extra-corporeal oxygenation). Pueyo notices that countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China), while countries that are not prepared and whose healthcare system is overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%. In other words, countries acting fast can reduce the number of deaths by a factor of ten.
What will happen when these coronavirus cases materialize? There will be pressure on the health care system as around 20% of cases require hospitalization, 5% of cases require the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and around 2.5% require very intensive help, with items such as ventilators or ECMO (extra-corporeal oxygenation). Pueyo notices that countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China), while countries that are not prepared and whose healthcare system is overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%. In other words, countries acting fast can reduce the number of deaths by a factor of ten.
What to do? According to author, social distancing is one very simple thing that we can do and that works. He created a risk-based model for triggers, which should help people and companies to make a decision on whether to open the office or send everybody home. The model is based on how many cases are probably in your area, and the likelihood that at least one of your employees catches infection. Pueyo warns that the cost of waiting with social distancing can be very big. In his theoretical model (chart 22) that resembles loosely Hubei, waiting one more day creates 40% more cases of infection. This illustrates how important a single day can be in something that grows exponentially such as spread of virus in population.
What to do? According to author, social distancing is one very simple thing that we can do and that works. He created a risk-based model for triggers, which should help people and companies to make a decision on whether to open the office or send everybody home. The model is based on how many cases are probably in your area, and the likelihood that at least one of your employees catches infection. Pueyo warns that the cost of waiting with social distancing can be very big. In his theoretical model (chart 22) that resembles loosely Hubei, waiting one more day creates 40% more cases of infection. This illustrates how important a single day can be in something that grows exponentially such as spread of virus in population.
Used source:
Used source:
1. Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now. Tomas Pueyo, (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca)
1. Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now. Tomas Pueyo, (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca)